New home prices in Canada climbed 0.1 percent in December from November, as expected, for an average annual increase in 2013 of 1.8 percent, the slowest since 1999, according to Statistics Canada data released on Thursday.
The monthly advance matched the median forecast in a Reuters poll of analysts and reinforces the view that the country’s housing market is stabilizing after a recent boom.
The closely-watched Toronto-Oshawa region was the top contributor to the monthly advance in the new housing price index with a gain of 0.2 percent in December and of 1.4 percent year-on-year.
Vancouver, another hot market for real estate, saw a 0.1 percent monthly decline in prices and a 1.1 percent decline from a year earlier.
Nationwide, prices rose 1.3 percent in the 12 months to December, down from 1.4 percent in November and the fifth straight month of slowing growth.
Overall, prices were unchanged in 11 metropolitan regions, down in five and up in five.
The Canadian government has intervened in the mortgage market several times since 2008 to cool the sector, and most economists expect a gradual softening rather than a U.S.-style crash.
The new housing price index excludes condominiums, which the government says are a particular cause for concern.
Top 10 Tips For Mortgage Borrowers in 2014
The clock is ticking for buyers and homeowners who want to grab a low mortgage rate in 2014. But if you stay on top of your game, keep your finances in order and act quickly, you can still grab attractive mortgage deals.
These 10 mortgage tips can help you with your mortgage decisions in 2014.
1. Document your finances. Lenders will be extra diligent when underwriting home loans in 2014, as new mortgage regulations went into effect in January. The rules put pressure on lenders to verify that borrowers have the ability to repay their loans.
Keep good records of your finances, including bank statements, tax returns, W-2s, investment accounts and any other assets you own. Be ready to explain any unusual deposits to your accounts. Yes, the $500 that Grandma deposited in your account for Christmas could delay your loan closing if you can't prove where the money came from.
2. Lock a rate as soon as you can. Rates will likely climb in 2014 as the Federal Reserve is expected to reduce the pace of the economic stimulus program that has long helped keep rates low. If you are planning to get a mortgage, lock in a rate as soon as you are comfortable with the numbers.
3. Refinance now - if you still can. Many homeowners lost the opportunity to refinance at a lower rate when rates jumped in 2013. But those who are still paying more than 5 percent interest on their home loans might still have an opportunity.
If you think you may be able to save with a refinance, but you are not sure, it doesn't hurt to try. Speak to a loan officer and take a look at the numbers to see if refinancing still makes financial sense for you after you consider how long it will take to break even with the closing costs.
4. Buyers, use your bargaining power. As mortgage rates climbed, lenders lost a big chunk of their refinance business. In 2014, they will turn their attention to homebuyers and will fiercely compete for their business. Buyers should take advantage of bargaining power they gain with that increased competition. Shop around for the best deal and look beyond the interest rate on the loan.
5. Learn your rights as a borrower. Mortgage borrowers will get many new rights as consumers this year when new mortgage rules created by the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau go into effect in 2014. If you run into issues with your mortgage servicer in 2014 or fall behind on your payments, make sure you are aware of your rights and put them to use.
6. Take good care of your credit. It's nearly impossible to get a mortgage without decent credit these days. That will continue to be the case in 2014. If you are planning to get a mortgage, monitor your credit history and score until your loan closes. The best mortgage rates usually go to borrowers with credit scores of 720 or higher. You may still get a mortgage with a score of 680, but lower scores will mean higher rates or higher closing costs.
7. Don't overspend. Lenders don't want to give out loans to borrowers who will have little money left each month after they pay their mortgages and other debt obligations such as credit cards and student loans. If that becomes the case, the lender will tell you that your DTI, or debt-to-income ratio, is too high and you don't qualify for a loan. Try to keep your monthly debt obligations, including your mortgage and property taxes, below 43 percent of your income.
8. Consider alternative mortgage options such as ARMs. Mortgage rates are rising, but there are alternatives to grab a lower rate, depending on your plans.
A homeowner planning to keep a house for seven to 10 years could take advantage of lower mortgage rates by choosing a seven- or 10-year ARM instead of the 30-year traditional fixed-rate mortgage. Rates on adjustable-rate mortgages can be as much as 1 percentage point lower than on fixed-rate loans.
If you are not sure for how long you plan to keep the house, a fixed-rate loan is probably the better choice.
9. Considering an FHA loan? Reconsider. FHA loans have long been popular among first-time homebuyers because they require low down payments and have somewhat less strict underwriting standards than conventional loans. But they come at a price. Mortgage insurance premiums on FHA loans are likely to continue to rise in 2014, and after recent changes, the borrower is now required to pay for mortgage insurance for the life of the loan. Try to qualify for a conventional loan before you apply for an FHA mortgage.
10. Don't panic. Yes, mortgage rates will likely climb in 2014. But don't panic, thinking you have to buy a home now to grab a low rate. If you are shopping for a home, do your best to move quickly, but remember that this is one of the biggest financial decisions of your life. Get your mortgage and buy your home when you feel ready.
These 10 mortgage tips can help you with your mortgage decisions in 2014.
1. Document your finances. Lenders will be extra diligent when underwriting home loans in 2014, as new mortgage regulations went into effect in January. The rules put pressure on lenders to verify that borrowers have the ability to repay their loans.
Keep good records of your finances, including bank statements, tax returns, W-2s, investment accounts and any other assets you own. Be ready to explain any unusual deposits to your accounts. Yes, the $500 that Grandma deposited in your account for Christmas could delay your loan closing if you can't prove where the money came from.
2. Lock a rate as soon as you can. Rates will likely climb in 2014 as the Federal Reserve is expected to reduce the pace of the economic stimulus program that has long helped keep rates low. If you are planning to get a mortgage, lock in a rate as soon as you are comfortable with the numbers.
3. Refinance now - if you still can. Many homeowners lost the opportunity to refinance at a lower rate when rates jumped in 2013. But those who are still paying more than 5 percent interest on their home loans might still have an opportunity.
If you think you may be able to save with a refinance, but you are not sure, it doesn't hurt to try. Speak to a loan officer and take a look at the numbers to see if refinancing still makes financial sense for you after you consider how long it will take to break even with the closing costs.
4. Buyers, use your bargaining power. As mortgage rates climbed, lenders lost a big chunk of their refinance business. In 2014, they will turn their attention to homebuyers and will fiercely compete for their business. Buyers should take advantage of bargaining power they gain with that increased competition. Shop around for the best deal and look beyond the interest rate on the loan.
5. Learn your rights as a borrower. Mortgage borrowers will get many new rights as consumers this year when new mortgage rules created by the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau go into effect in 2014. If you run into issues with your mortgage servicer in 2014 or fall behind on your payments, make sure you are aware of your rights and put them to use.
6. Take good care of your credit. It's nearly impossible to get a mortgage without decent credit these days. That will continue to be the case in 2014. If you are planning to get a mortgage, monitor your credit history and score until your loan closes. The best mortgage rates usually go to borrowers with credit scores of 720 or higher. You may still get a mortgage with a score of 680, but lower scores will mean higher rates or higher closing costs.
7. Don't overspend. Lenders don't want to give out loans to borrowers who will have little money left each month after they pay their mortgages and other debt obligations such as credit cards and student loans. If that becomes the case, the lender will tell you that your DTI, or debt-to-income ratio, is too high and you don't qualify for a loan. Try to keep your monthly debt obligations, including your mortgage and property taxes, below 43 percent of your income.
8. Consider alternative mortgage options such as ARMs. Mortgage rates are rising, but there are alternatives to grab a lower rate, depending on your plans.
A homeowner planning to keep a house for seven to 10 years could take advantage of lower mortgage rates by choosing a seven- or 10-year ARM instead of the 30-year traditional fixed-rate mortgage. Rates on adjustable-rate mortgages can be as much as 1 percentage point lower than on fixed-rate loans.
If you are not sure for how long you plan to keep the house, a fixed-rate loan is probably the better choice.
9. Considering an FHA loan? Reconsider. FHA loans have long been popular among first-time homebuyers because they require low down payments and have somewhat less strict underwriting standards than conventional loans. But they come at a price. Mortgage insurance premiums on FHA loans are likely to continue to rise in 2014, and after recent changes, the borrower is now required to pay for mortgage insurance for the life of the loan. Try to qualify for a conventional loan before you apply for an FHA mortgage.
10. Don't panic. Yes, mortgage rates will likely climb in 2014. But don't panic, thinking you have to buy a home now to grab a low rate. If you are shopping for a home, do your best to move quickly, but remember that this is one of the biggest financial decisions of your life. Get your mortgage and buy your home when you feel ready.
Canada Scraps 'Millionaire Visa,' Sends B.C. Property Market Reeling
Real estate agents in Vancouver say property prices could take a hit, after Canada scrapped a program which allowed wealthy immigrants to fast-track the visa process.
The Immigrant Investor Program, launched in 1986, offered visas to business people with a net worth of at least $1.6 million who were willing to lend $800,000 to the Canadian government — for investment across Canada — for a term of five years.
By 2012, the scheme had to be temporarily frozen due to a huge backlog of applications from wealthy mainland Chinese hoping to come to B.C. Now, the government has announced it will end the program for good and scrap all 59,000 applications backlogged worldwide.
The decision came less than a week after the South China Morning Post published a series of exclusive investigative reports into the controversial scheme.
Property prices could take a hit
In West Vancouver, real estate agent Clarence Debelle is still receiving offers from mainland China for luxury property, but she’s concerned the end of the investor program will have an impact on the local economy and the high-end housing market.
“I deal directly with these people who bring a lot of wealth, who are creating lots of jobs for local Canadians — builders, trades, architects, realtors like myself,” said Debelle.
“Most of the buying is coming from Chinese immigrants who are wealthy, so if we make it difficult for them to come into this country, we have killed 80 to 90 per cent of the buying in West Vancouver.”
Immigration lawyer Richard Kurland agrees.
“When you suddenly stave off the intake of literally hundreds of millionaires in the Vancouver property market, prices can only go one way and that’s down,” said Kurland.
Market impacted by more than investors
Others aren’t so sure. Even with the investor program frozen, housing prices continued to rise.
Tom Davidoff with UBC’s Sauder School of Business says the market is driven by other things like low interest rates and the local and global economies.
“Given that in the last couple of years, we haven’t seen the market cool off, it’s hard to believe that freezing the investor market is going to kill even the high-end in Vancouver,” said Davidoff.
The government has also announced the end of the Entrepreneur Program, a smaller scheme for business people who plan to own and manage a business in Canada.
However, wealthy investors can still come to Canada through the Start-up Visa Program, which encourages immigrant entrepreneurs to partner with private sector organizations to invest in local start-ups.
The Immigrant Investor Program, launched in 1986, offered visas to business people with a net worth of at least $1.6 million who were willing to lend $800,000 to the Canadian government — for investment across Canada — for a term of five years.
By 2012, the scheme had to be temporarily frozen due to a huge backlog of applications from wealthy mainland Chinese hoping to come to B.C. Now, the government has announced it will end the program for good and scrap all 59,000 applications backlogged worldwide.
The decision came less than a week after the South China Morning Post published a series of exclusive investigative reports into the controversial scheme.
Property prices could take a hit
In West Vancouver, real estate agent Clarence Debelle is still receiving offers from mainland China for luxury property, but she’s concerned the end of the investor program will have an impact on the local economy and the high-end housing market.
“I deal directly with these people who bring a lot of wealth, who are creating lots of jobs for local Canadians — builders, trades, architects, realtors like myself,” said Debelle.
“Most of the buying is coming from Chinese immigrants who are wealthy, so if we make it difficult for them to come into this country, we have killed 80 to 90 per cent of the buying in West Vancouver.”
Immigration lawyer Richard Kurland agrees.
“When you suddenly stave off the intake of literally hundreds of millionaires in the Vancouver property market, prices can only go one way and that’s down,” said Kurland.
Market impacted by more than investors
Others aren’t so sure. Even with the investor program frozen, housing prices continued to rise.
Tom Davidoff with UBC’s Sauder School of Business says the market is driven by other things like low interest rates and the local and global economies.
“Given that in the last couple of years, we haven’t seen the market cool off, it’s hard to believe that freezing the investor market is going to kill even the high-end in Vancouver,” said Davidoff.
The government has also announced the end of the Entrepreneur Program, a smaller scheme for business people who plan to own and manage a business in Canada.
However, wealthy investors can still come to Canada through the Start-up Visa Program, which encourages immigrant entrepreneurs to partner with private sector organizations to invest in local start-ups.
Hundreds of Canadian Credit Cards Hacked By Infected Terminals, Firm Warns
A new strain of computer malware infecting payment card terminals in restaurant and gas station has compromised nearly 700 credit cards in Canada, a computer security firm says.
The viral code, JackPOS, infects point-of-sales terminals, a security breach similar to other highly publicized recent cases that struck victims such as the Target retailing chain or the White Lodging hotel management firm.
According to a map released Monday by the California security firm IntelCrawler LLC, JackPOS stole data from 400 cards in Vancouver and from 280 other cards at a location in Longueuil, Que., south of Montreal.
IntelCrawler said the infection appeared about three weeks ago.
In an e-mail to The Globe and Mail, IntelCrawler CEO Andrew Komarov said the point-of-sales terminals were breached through remote access, by hackers who created a large list of possible passwords (such as POS1, Administrator or 123456789) and then “brute-forced” themselves into the systems.
“It provides them good results, as the security in this sector is surprisingly really very poor,” M. Komarov wrote.
Other countries affected by JackPOS include Brazil, where data for 3,000 cards in Sao Paulo were stolen; India, where 420 cards were compromised in Bangalore; and Spain, where 230 cards were pirated in Madrid.
The two outbreaks in Canada likely happened at a gas station, said Richard Henderson, a Vancouver-based security strategist for Fortinet's Threat Research Labs.
“In Canada we’re lucky that the vast majority of our transactions done day-to-day are with chip-and-PIN, which are much more secure,” he said, adding however that some gas stations’ pumps are still relying on the old magnetic-swipe method that is more vulnerable to hacking.
JackPOS appears to be a variation of a previous malware, Alina. Both are known as RAM scrapers, which capture card data when it is transmitted from the sales terminal to a payment-processing centre.
Mr. Henderson said JackPOS’s key feature is its ability to hide on a machine by pretending to be a version of Java, a programming platform used by some computer applications.
“That’s a really neat obfuscation technique by the malware to make it look like it’s a legitimate piece of software.”
According to a global security report by the anti-cybercrime firm Trustwave, victims of point-of-sale hacking tend to be merchants or franchises who have to outsource their IT work and rely on contractors who access their systems remotely. Weak passwords and remote access make it easier for hackers to breach POS systems.
Most of the breaches can be attributed to three criminal groups, with the data being dumped in Russia, Ukraine or Romania, the Trustwave report said.
The rollout of chip-and-PIN cards in Canada and Europe have made fraud harder. However, the report said cyber-thieves still go after POS targets in hotels and premium retailers, because those businesses attract an international clientele that does not have chip-and-PIN cards.
The viral code, JackPOS, infects point-of-sales terminals, a security breach similar to other highly publicized recent cases that struck victims such as the Target retailing chain or the White Lodging hotel management firm.
According to a map released Monday by the California security firm IntelCrawler LLC, JackPOS stole data from 400 cards in Vancouver and from 280 other cards at a location in Longueuil, Que., south of Montreal.
IntelCrawler said the infection appeared about three weeks ago.
In an e-mail to The Globe and Mail, IntelCrawler CEO Andrew Komarov said the point-of-sales terminals were breached through remote access, by hackers who created a large list of possible passwords (such as POS1, Administrator or 123456789) and then “brute-forced” themselves into the systems.
“It provides them good results, as the security in this sector is surprisingly really very poor,” M. Komarov wrote.
Other countries affected by JackPOS include Brazil, where data for 3,000 cards in Sao Paulo were stolen; India, where 420 cards were compromised in Bangalore; and Spain, where 230 cards were pirated in Madrid.
The two outbreaks in Canada likely happened at a gas station, said Richard Henderson, a Vancouver-based security strategist for Fortinet's Threat Research Labs.
“In Canada we’re lucky that the vast majority of our transactions done day-to-day are with chip-and-PIN, which are much more secure,” he said, adding however that some gas stations’ pumps are still relying on the old magnetic-swipe method that is more vulnerable to hacking.
JackPOS appears to be a variation of a previous malware, Alina. Both are known as RAM scrapers, which capture card data when it is transmitted from the sales terminal to a payment-processing centre.
Mr. Henderson said JackPOS’s key feature is its ability to hide on a machine by pretending to be a version of Java, a programming platform used by some computer applications.
“That’s a really neat obfuscation technique by the malware to make it look like it’s a legitimate piece of software.”
According to a global security report by the anti-cybercrime firm Trustwave, victims of point-of-sale hacking tend to be merchants or franchises who have to outsource their IT work and rely on contractors who access their systems remotely. Weak passwords and remote access make it easier for hackers to breach POS systems.
Most of the breaches can be attributed to three criminal groups, with the data being dumped in Russia, Ukraine or Romania, the Trustwave report said.
The rollout of chip-and-PIN cards in Canada and Europe have made fraud harder. However, the report said cyber-thieves still go after POS targets in hotels and premium retailers, because those businesses attract an international clientele that does not have chip-and-PIN cards.
Toronto House Prices Could Slip In 2015, TD Bank Predicts
Report estimates Toronto, Vancouver real estate markets are 10 to 15 per cent overvalued, compared to 10 per cent for rest of country
Barely has the year — and a whole new round of bidding wars — begun and the first of the big banks has weighed in with a warning that Toronto’s housing market is 10 to 15 per cent overvalued.
So is Vancouver’s, says TD Economics in a report released Monday, noting that both cities have been seeing “frothier conditions” than the rest of the country, where house prices remain about 10 per cent overvalued, largely because of low interest rates.
“Toronto and Vancouver make up 40 per cent of the Canadian housing market, so that’s what’s really driving the overvaluation measure,” said TD economist Diana Petramala in an interview.
A spike in interest rates or a “negative economic shock” could potentially send resale home prices tumbling by 25 per cent, Petramala notes. But it’s far more likely there will be a “gradual unwinding of excesses” in the Canadian market as interest rates slowly rise, along with incomes, over the next few years.
It’s likely to be 2015 until Toronto, and much of the country, start to see any real downturn in sales and prices, according to TD.
While Toronto home prices jumped 6.8 per cent in 2012 and 5.4 per cent in 2013, they could rise just 2.7 per cent this year and slip by 1.2 per cent in 2015, when interest rates are expected to start climbing, the report forecasts.
Petramala notes that “prices ended 2013 on a much higher note than we had been expecting as households faced an unusually low level of homes for sale.”
That has played out in the old City of Toronto, in particular, in an unexpectedly feverish start to 2014, with a simple Junction Triangle row house going for $210,000 over asking price in a flurry of 32 bids.
“The one concern we have is that we’re seeing more strength in Toronto’s house prices than expected,” says Sal Guatieri, senior economist with BMO Capital Markets.
Even all those new condos coming on the market haven’t been enough to hold down housing prices, says Guatieri, noting that resale condo prices were up almost 4 per cent in December, year over year.
“We thought, if anything, Toronto house prices would fall somewhat last year. But underlying demand is pretty strong, net migration is pretty healthy and the number of echo boomers aged 30 to 34 is growing quite rapidly at the moment and they are a prime homebuying cohort, especially for condos.”
The housing market is “overshooting,” but “it’s not a market that is crashing,” says Benjamin Tal, deputy chief economist at CIBC World Markets.
He continues to believe that the market will slow to a soft landing and that real estate numbers to be released this week detailing January sales and prices (those from the Toronto Real Estate Board are due out Wednesday) could start to provide a more “realistic” picture of the health of the housing sector.
“This market will be tested when interest rates start rising, and that means it won’t be tested for a while.”
The Canadian housing market and worries about a real estate bubble have been key concerns for policy-makers for several years.
Recent indicators have suggested the market may be headed for a soft landing instead of a bubble bursting, but concerns have persisted.
Barely has the year — and a whole new round of bidding wars — begun and the first of the big banks has weighed in with a warning that Toronto’s housing market is 10 to 15 per cent overvalued.
So is Vancouver’s, says TD Economics in a report released Monday, noting that both cities have been seeing “frothier conditions” than the rest of the country, where house prices remain about 10 per cent overvalued, largely because of low interest rates.
“Toronto and Vancouver make up 40 per cent of the Canadian housing market, so that’s what’s really driving the overvaluation measure,” said TD economist Diana Petramala in an interview.
A spike in interest rates or a “negative economic shock” could potentially send resale home prices tumbling by 25 per cent, Petramala notes. But it’s far more likely there will be a “gradual unwinding of excesses” in the Canadian market as interest rates slowly rise, along with incomes, over the next few years.
It’s likely to be 2015 until Toronto, and much of the country, start to see any real downturn in sales and prices, according to TD.
While Toronto home prices jumped 6.8 per cent in 2012 and 5.4 per cent in 2013, they could rise just 2.7 per cent this year and slip by 1.2 per cent in 2015, when interest rates are expected to start climbing, the report forecasts.
Petramala notes that “prices ended 2013 on a much higher note than we had been expecting as households faced an unusually low level of homes for sale.”
That has played out in the old City of Toronto, in particular, in an unexpectedly feverish start to 2014, with a simple Junction Triangle row house going for $210,000 over asking price in a flurry of 32 bids.
“The one concern we have is that we’re seeing more strength in Toronto’s house prices than expected,” says Sal Guatieri, senior economist with BMO Capital Markets.
Even all those new condos coming on the market haven’t been enough to hold down housing prices, says Guatieri, noting that resale condo prices were up almost 4 per cent in December, year over year.
“We thought, if anything, Toronto house prices would fall somewhat last year. But underlying demand is pretty strong, net migration is pretty healthy and the number of echo boomers aged 30 to 34 is growing quite rapidly at the moment and they are a prime homebuying cohort, especially for condos.”
The housing market is “overshooting,” but “it’s not a market that is crashing,” says Benjamin Tal, deputy chief economist at CIBC World Markets.
He continues to believe that the market will slow to a soft landing and that real estate numbers to be released this week detailing January sales and prices (those from the Toronto Real Estate Board are due out Wednesday) could start to provide a more “realistic” picture of the health of the housing sector.
“This market will be tested when interest rates start rising, and that means it won’t be tested for a while.”
The Canadian housing market and worries about a real estate bubble have been key concerns for policy-makers for several years.
Recent indicators have suggested the market may be headed for a soft landing instead of a bubble bursting, but concerns have persisted.
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